Prices · market estimates, not offers
What a tax credit sells for in 2026
Most transferable credits sell for 88 to 96 cents per dollar of credit; a small, uninsured deal often gets 80 to 89. Here is every public price report side by side, what moves the price, and what a seller keeps after costs.
Verified · four public market reports
The short answer
- Most credits: about 88 to 96 cents per $1 of credit as of October 2026[1].
- Production credits sell for more than investment credits. In the first half of 2026 the average was $0.930 for 2026 production credits and $0.913 for investment credits[2]. Production credits carry no recapture risk for the buyer[4].
- Foreign-entity exposure now moves the price most, ahead of deal size and the seller's strength; insurance matters too (below).
- What you keep is lower than the headline. Net cash typically runs 1 to 6 cents below the headline price once the seller pays its own insurance, legal and intermediary costs[5].
These are published market estimates by firms that arrange or buy credits. They are not offers, and every deal prices to its own facts. Your own range: the Credit Value Estimator.
Price by deal size
Cenet Capital's observed bands, from its quarterly report[1]:
| Deal profile | Where it tends to price, per $1 of credit |
|---|---|
| $50 million or more, investment-grade seller, insured or with a strong guaranty | about $0.93–0.96 |
| $10–50 million, experienced sponsor, insured | about $0.89–0.93 |
| Under $10 million, single project, uninsured | about $0.80–0.89 |
| Portfolio of small projects, aggregated and insured | can move up toward the middle band |
Crux data point the same way: investment credits from deals under $20 million averaged 90.0 cents, against 93.5 cents for $50 to $100 million deals[5].
Price by credit: the reports side by side
Each report measures something slightly different: Crux publishes averages across its data, Renewable Credit Management publishes clearing ranges for deals above about $5 million[4], and Cenet Capital combines public data with its own deals[1]. Read the figures as a range of informed views, dated, not as one price.
| Credit | Crux Averages across Crux's market data | Renewable Credit Management Indicative clearing ranges, deals above about $5 million (Aug 2026) | Cenet Capital Public data and Cenet's own deals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investment credits (§48, §48E)§48 · §48E | $0.913 average for 2026 credits, first half of 2026[2] Investment-grade sellers in 2025: $0.940 in the first half, $0.931 in the second[3] | §48: $0.90–0.93. §48E: $0.88–0.91, standard deals near $0.90[4] | About $0.895 average in early 2026; $0.92–0.95 for investment-grade sellers[1] 2025 credits: about $0.909 for the year; utility-scale about $0.926, residential about $0.900[1] |
| Production credits (§45, §45Y)§45 · §45Y | $0.930 average for 2026 credits, first half of 2026[2] Investment-grade sellers in 2025: $0.950 in the first half, $0.940 in the second[3] | §45: $0.92–0.945[4] | About $0.917 average in early 2026; $0.92–0.96 for investment-grade sellers[1] |
| §45X advanced manufacturing§45X | No figure | $0.90–0.93; bids signal downward pressure[4] | About $0.925 average in the second quarter of 2026[5] |
| §45Z clean fuel§45Z | $0.908 average in 2025[3] | $0.87–0.92[4] | About $0.85–0.93[1] |
| §45U nuclear§45U | $0.962 average in 2025, among the highest of any credit[3] | No figure | No figure |
| §30C refueling property§30C | No figure | $0.85–0.90; small tranches[4] | No figure |
No public figure in these reports for §45Q, §45V or §48C: ask a marketplace or broker for a current indication.
What moves the price
- Foreign-entity exposure. In the first half of 2026, prohibited-foreign-entity risk overtook deal size and seller rating as the dominant factor in pricing[2]. Legacy §48 and §45 credits from projects that began construction before 1 January 2025, which those rules do not reach, commanded premiums of $0.015 (investment) and $0.020 (production) over exposed credits[2]. For newer projects, buyers want the cost-ratio calculation and supplier certifications: see foreign-entity rules.
- Seller strength. The premium buyers pay for an investment-grade seller fell to about $0.015 in the first half of 2026, from $0.030 in 2025[2]. The top band is for investment-grade sellers with insurance or a strong guaranty[1].
- Credit type. Investment credits sell lower because the buyer carries recapture and basis risk; production credits have no recapture exposure[5][4].
- Deal size. Bigger deals price higher (table above). Fixed legal and insurance costs weigh more on small ones.
- Insurance and indemnity. Insured credits often sell for more, and uninsured ones may be discounted further[7]. About 67% of deals of $10 million or more were insured, against 11% of deals under $10 million[1].
- When you sell. A forward commitment, signed before the project is in service, prices lower than a sale of a credit that already exists, but it can support construction financing[5].
What comes off the price
The headline price is what the buyer pays. The seller usually pays these out of it[5]:
| Cost | Typical size |
|---|---|
| Broker or marketplace fee, if you use one | 1% to 3% of the credit[5] |
| Tax credit insurance, if the buyer requires it | 3 to 5 cents per $1 of credit, up from 2 to 3 cents in 2024 and early 2025[6]. Hard to obtain, or uneconomic, for deals under about $3 to $5 million with a single sponsor[6]. |
| Your legal and diligence costs: counsel, cost segregation, wage and apprenticeship reviews | Often $40,000 or more per deal[5] |
| The buyer's legal and diligence costs | Buyers almost always ask the seller to reimburse them, up to a negotiated cap[6] |
On a small deal these costs bite hardest: a $1 million credit that sells for 88 cents but carries $40,000 of legal costs nets 84 cents[5].
Worked example: a $500,000 §48E credit
The same arithmetic as the Credit Value Estimator, with a broker fee, without and with insurance. Legal costs are not included.
| Without insurance | With insurance | |
|---|---|---|
| Price per $1 of credit | $0.80 – $0.95 | $0.80 – $0.95 |
| Gross proceeds | $400,000 – $475,000 | $400,000 – $475,000 |
| Broker fee (1–3% of the credit) | $5,000 – $15,000 | $5,000 – $15,000 |
| Insurance premium (2–5% of the credit) | – | $10,000 – $25,000 |
| Indicative net to seller | $385,000 – $470,000 | $360,000 – $460,000 |
The estimator uses the same price range with or without insurance; in practice insured credits often sell for more[7]. Indicative, not an offer.
Getting a better price on a small credit
- Have the file ready before you go to market. Registration number, placed-in-service evidence, cost support, wage and apprenticeship records, bonus evidence and the foreign-entity analysis. The Readiness Checker lists what is missing.
- Consider credit support. Across 2024 transactions, more than half (55.3%) used a parent indemnity rather than insurance[7]; on a small deal that is often the cheaper route.
- Aggregate. A portfolio of small projects, aggregated and insured, can move up toward the middle price band[1].
- Compare intermediaries. A broker or marketplace costs 1% to 3%; selling directly to a buyer avoids that layer but narrows the field[5].
How big the market is
About $42 billion of credits were transferred in 2025, up from $32 billion in 2024[3]. In 2026, about $21 billion, including a record $14.9 billion in the second quarter, traded in the first half; Crux projects $47.5 to $49 billion for the full year[1].
Quarterly, when Crux and Cenet Capital publish. Every figure is quoted from the source it cites; nothing here is our own estimate.
Market sources
- Tax credit transfer market report: prices and volumes, Q4 2026 (4 Oct 2026)
- 2026 mid-year market intelligence report: 5 takeaways for clean energy developers (20 Aug 2026)
- Crux's 2025 market intelligence report: what tax credit buyers need to know (19 Mar 2026)
- Transferable tax credit market intelligence report (14 Aug 2026)
- Tax credit price calculator: what is your credit worth in cash? (7 Oct 2026)
- Transferable tax credits comprehensive guide 2026
- 4 ways developers can prepare to sell smaller tax credits (12 Jun 2025)